So, why is the presidential race Trump's to lose?

Homepage Forums Politics So, why is the presidential race Trump's to lose?

This topic contains 29 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by  Simon Paynton 3 weeks ago.

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  • #52450

    Unseen
    Participant

    How’s that vaunted rep after Trump is president for life?

    Trump, the candidate of “The Law and Order Party Unless Rulings Don’t Go Our Way Party,” will probably see that any Justice he doesn’t like gets impeached and replaced by a bunch of asslicking sycophants. And that’s assuming he doesn’t simply shut that branch of government down. He only needs his branche because it’s the one with the troops and guns and a patsy Congress to pass any laws he might want.

    The Great Experiment is over if he’s elected.

    #52473

    Unseen
    Participant

    Biden has a BIG problem. He needs a particular demographic behind him to win the election but he’s going to have to abandon or at least temper his support of Israel in order to win their enthusiasm back.

    Biden needs his young climate activists. But they’re angry about the war in Gaza.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 5 days ago by  Unseen.
    #52477

    _Robert_
    Participant

    Biden has a BIG problem. He needs a particular demographic behind him to win the election but he’s going to have to abandon or at least temper his support of Israel in order to win their enthusiasm back. Biden needs his young climate activists. But they’re angry about the war in Gaza

    .

    I will scrutinize this article as I typically do.

    Doesn’t even talk about the low numbers of young people that actually vote (less than 1/3), despite all their virtue signaling or why they would even want to vote for Biden’s opposition: Trump, who says ““So you have a war that’s going on, and you’re probably going to have to let this play out”.

    Cites a poll that barely supports the position:

    46 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 “strongly disapproved” of Biden’s response to the situation, while 26 percent “somewhat disapproved”

    Then cites a more decisive poll that works against the premise of the article.

    But there are potential political traps for Biden if he leans too far in the other direction. A January Harvard Harris poll showed that 80 percent of voters backed Israel over Hamas, including 57 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds and 70 percent of 25- to 34-year-olds.

    It may not be the “BIG problem” after all especially since latest polls showing that females are beginning to favor Biden more since Trump lost his sexual molester trial, again. “Grab ’em  by the pussy”, but I care about Palestinians? Really? Most of the Hamas supporters live in blue states that will go with Biden anyways.

    Of course, now we have more Iran-sponsored jihadists attacking US forces and also shooting rockets at Sunni Muslims in Pakistan, Iraq and Syria as well as commercial shipping from Yemen…. as if it has anything to do with Israel, thanks be to god, because that’s just what they do. The world should know the ghastly Sunni vs Shia death toll over the decades. It makes the “white vs brown” numbers a drop in a bucket. Just the Iraq/?iran war alone is half a million dead. It’s not really an “Israel” problem, at all. You can’t sit down and talk with martyrs who are stupid enough to believe the bullshit. Why is this planet is crawling with clueless apes, barely able to survive, who yearn to be told by authoritarians how, who and what to worship.

     

    #52478

    Unseen
    Participant

    Biden has a BIG problem. He needs a particular demographic behind him to win the election but he’s going to have to abandon or at least temper his support of Israel in order to win their enthusiasm back.

    Biden needs his young climate activists. But they’re angry about the war in Gaza

    . I will scrutinize this article as I typically do. Doesn’t even talk about the low numbers of young people that actually vote (less than 1/3), despite all their virtue signaling or why they would even want to vote for Biden’s opposition: Trump, who says ““So you have a war that’s going on, and you’re probably going to have to let this play out”. Cites a poll that barely supports the position:

    46 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 “strongly disapproved” of Biden’s response to the situation, while 26 percent “somewhat disapproved”

    Then cites a more decisive poll that works against the premise of the article.

    But there are potential political traps for Biden if he leans too far in the other direction. A January Harvard Harris poll showed that 80 percent of voters backed Israel over Hamas, including 57 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds and 70 percent of 25- to 34-year-olds.

    Nobody is arguing that Biden needs everyone in the demographic in question but that he’s having a hard time holding onto the votes that came from there due to the U.S.’s typically lopsided pro-Israel stance that tends to overlook Israeli excesses while only occasionally mouthing toothless protests. America should have a lot of influence over Israel but rarely puts words into action as they might by threatening to withhold military aid and supplies until Israel rectifies its behavior.

     It may not be the “BIG problem” after all especially since latest polls showing that females are beginning to favor Biden more since Trump lost his sexual molester trial, again. “Grab ’em by the pussy”, but I care about Palestinians? Really? Most of the Hamas supporters live in blue states that will go with Biden anyways.

    With many polls currently showing Trump ahead in “battleground” states, Biden can ill afford to lose a demographic that represents the future of his party. Remember, too, that with the Electoral College system, raw votes matter less than where votes are cast. Battleground states have that status because elections are close in those states and almost all of them electors are won “winner take all.” Maine and Nebraska choosing to distribute them proportionally, but those are tiny states with little relative influence. Young voters could easily swing a state like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida one way or the other.

    Of course, now we have more Iran-sponsored jihadists attacking US forces and also shooting rockets at Sunni Muslims in Pakistan, Iraq and Syria as well as commercial shipping from Yemen…. as if it has anything to do with Israel, thanks be to god, because that’s just what they do. The world should know the ghastly Sunni vs Shia death toll over the decades. It makes the “white vs brown” numbers a drop in a bucket. Just the Iraq/?iran war alone is half a million dead. It’s not really an “Israel” problem, at all. You can’t sit down and talk with martyrs who are stupid enough to believe the bullshit. Why is this planet is crawling with clueless apes, barely able to survive, who yearn to be told by authoritarians how, who and what to worship.

    We don’t back Israel because we, the United States, always back Truth and Justice, much less Human Rights. Come on. Saudi Arabia? Egypt? The Philippines? Hungary? Young people are aware of this.

    I think a lot of young people wonder why the U.S. spends so much of its time and money, uninvited, in other countries’ backyards when there is so much more to be done at home.

    #52481

    _Robert_
    Participant

    Because young people are often ignorant of history.  It’s like the human race has to learn history all over again. We are back to the middle age crusades and caliphates. Muslims vs Judeo-Christians. The takedown of infidels is literally the doctrine of Islam. They will admit that…they tell us they can be patient but also non-relenting. It’s what Allah wants.

    We are back to WW1/2 brewing in Eastern Europe. A dictator with a written manifesto literally telling NATO and everyone exactly what he was planning to do for decades and then did it. Did we listen, no. Don’t worry Putin and Russia will follow along with us progressives. As if Russia ever did. It’s all about cold-war revenge. Destruction of any sense of liberal thought in the Russian people who are akin to boot-licking zombies, happy to kill their neighbors and fertilize their soil so Putin and his oligarchs can shit in golden toilets. Let Russia suck up every democracy that was once in the USSR, and then some. It’ll be fine. Putin’s cool, he’s a really nice guy, worried about his people.

    We are back to the US civil war and reconstruction attitudes in the Midwest and South. An entire movement based on white nationalism and the destruction of the Union. We have an enormously populated Asian nation run by one “god-like” man who calls every shot. Very reminiscent of Japan’s imperialistic goals. And they are backing another shitty little nation that is so much up its dear leader’s ass that they don’t need shoes.

    There is nothing new here. We have been through all of it. Let’s wait around for all the dictators and despots to get really bold, really strong. So Hamas, you go girl… kill all them Jews, we got you back. You are digging tunnels because you are into fossil hunting. And Iran is cool. The Ayatollahs are rational guys. When they get the Nukes, we will all be fine. Not like they are Jihadists or something.

    The average “young American” can’t find Yemen on a map. Clueless.

    #52482

    Unseen
    Participant

    @ Robert

    And on the other hand, “The generals are always preparing for the last war.” The Chinese and Russians (and probably the North Koreans) are perfecting hypersonic antiship missiles and high speed drone torpedoes and we are still building surface ships like crazy, including aircraft carriers.

    My point. you can also be trapped by history and by assuming the future will be like the past.

    Biden and our governments knee jerk support for Israel and turning a blind eye to their genocidal tendencies comes at a cost.

    #52483

    _Robert_
    Participant

    I agree, strategy and technology-wise, you can fight the wrong war. Kinda like how the Russian war in Ukraine is relatively devolved; a series of meat-wave attacks with unsupported, cold-war era armor.  Don’t underestimate what else the US defense system is working on just because we still build carriers. Who knows what types of active defense systems a carrier group has planned to meet the new missile challenges. Missiles can be tracked by radar and satellites, shot down, laser-beamed, electronically jammed or fooled. I am very happy to learn we are setting up to build chips onshore again.

    However, land grab invaders, ideological brutal dictators and religious zealots have not changed. The ostrich routine doesn’t make them go away. We are headed the wrong direction. You would think by 2024 we would have global peace and cooperation, friendly competition, wealth equality and shining democracies with well-educated voters. Yeah, right. The US is a quasi-democracy and might be slowly becoming the next tyrannical state, even willing to superficially befriend other dictators. Good luck planet Earth if the US decides to flex like the authoritarians do. A committed American dictatorship would make Hitler, Stalin and all living dictators look like rank amateurs. Fortunately, that would probably require another US civil war first, unlike the Palestinian civilians or Russians who are happy suck Hamas or Putin dick.

    “The level of democracy enjoyed by the average world citizen in 2022 is back to 1986 levels. This means that 72 percent of the world’s population, 5.7 billion people, live under authoritarian rule”, according to Staffan I. Lindberg, Director of the V-Dem Institute.

    #52484

    @_Robert_  Voters in the US are superficial as hell. How many people can name a single bill or who supported it?

    I stay in Fulton County when I’m in Atlanta. I was there for the Senate runoff election in December 2022. I went up to the local polling station and saw very few MAGA cap wearing voters. How or why would anyone want Walker as their representative? He was only parachuted in to please the MAGA mob and any fair-minded Republican could tell that Warnock was a decent person and would fight the fight for everyone. Yet when it came to the election count it was too close to call for most of the day.

    The reason is because so many voters were prepared to vote against their own interests. They would elect a person entirely incapable of representing them just to change the 50/50 divide in the Senate. The same as the voters in the next county did with MTG.  To hell with our children’s education or local infrastructure builds, we just want a Trump minion and to get on with banning books instead.

    We are still living in interesting times.

    #52485

    jakelafort
    Participant

    Perhaps when a nation has a great many who vote against interest it is a sign of a sick society. When personal interest plays second fiddle to ideology as we see in Gaza it means that humans have been fiddled and diddled.

    #52499

    Unseen
    Participant

    George Conway is one of America’s top attorneys. Once was in line to be Solicitor General (the government’s top attorney and representative before the Supreme Court). Until 2018, he was a staunch Republican, but he abondoned his party because “It had become a personality cult.”

    A wide-ranging discussion of Trump and his cult, the GOP, and American politics.

    #52504

    Unseen
    Participant

    A coup need not look like a coup. No mobs. No barricades. No assassinations or kangaroo courts.

    A soft coup is going on right now.

    #52533

    Unseen
    Participant

    The polls are more confusing than ever:

    We need to keep reminding ourselves that winning the popular vote doesn’t matter. You have to win in the Electoral College, which is why Cenk Uygur said that it isn’t good enough for Biden to just win, he has to win by at least 3 or 4 points in the popular vote, which will mean turning some of the battleground/swing states in his favor.

    One key will be the turnout of women and swing voters. However, Biden is up against what will be a nearly 100% turnout of the MAGAheads and the died-in-the-wool Republicans whereas his support among Muslim voters and progressive voters is wavering, as are the black and Hispanic blocs.

    #52538

    Belle Rose
    Participant

    The stupidity of our nation continues to really piss me off. I’m still banging my head against the wall…..REALLY?!?!?…..we are insistent upon hitting the self-destruct button.

    #52539

    Belle Rose
    Participant

    As soon as I can afford it I’m moving to (insert foreign country here). The US is destined for civil war. You heard it here first folks 😂

    #52540

    Simon Paynton
    Participant

    I think Trump is very clever at manipulating certain demographics’ basic circuitry, inserting himself there, hijacking their minds, and using people as his puppets.  There are the Christians who don’t go to Church – presumably they think Trump is a devout Christian.  There are the Great Replacement-type people – they think the world is a zero-sum place and their group is about to be swallowed up by the others.  There are the resentful and aggrieved.  All of whom think Trump is their messianic saviour.

    If personality is a spectrum, and we’re all a little bit narcissistic – Donald J uses that to his advantage.

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