Reply To: Might the predictions of climate change be wrong? Or do you believe on faith!

[Gallup’s Mirror]

“Keep in mind the butterfly effect and the fact that the climate scientists compiled a mind-bogglingly huge quantity of data. What if some of that data is a little bit off? It seems to me that for many people, belief in human-caused climate change has become a de facto article of faith.”

Faith is necessary when there is lack of evidence. We have evidence for climate change in the past. The IPCC allows for error, indicating throughout its descriptions of climate change the probability that an assertion is correct and confidence in the accuracy of the supporting data. See the included text below for an example.

As far as models projecting the future climate based on past and current trends, sure they could be wrong. This is part of any forecast. A typical weather report indicates probability of various conditions. A lottery gives the odds of winning. An estimate of future lifespan is based on past and current health of the patient.

I don’t take weather reports on faith. I accept that tomorrow there is a 20% chance of rain, based on the best information available, and plan accordingly. If I care to check the data, I can see approaching rain clouds on weather radar maps.

A prediction does not have to be certain to be useful in making plans. In a weather model predicting rain, I will not put sealer on my driveway tomorrow. In a model predicting sunshine, I will. I can prepare for both outcomes. In a powerball drawing giving one chance in fifty million of winning, I’ll hold off on hiring a butler until after the drawing.

And so on.

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Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with only about 1% stored in the atmosphere. On a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C per decade over the period 1971 to 2010. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {1.1.2, Figure 1.2}

Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation has increased since 1901 (medium confidence before and high confidence after 1951). For other latitudes, area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have low confidence. Observations of changes in ocean surface salinity also provide indirect evidence for changes in the global water cycle over the ocean (medium confidence). It is very likely that regions of high salinity, where evaporation dominates, have become more saline, while regions of low salinity, where precipitation dominates, have become fresher since the 1950s. {1.1.1, 1.1.2}
(Source: IPCC – Climate Change 2014 – Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers)