Reply To: Might the predictions of climate change be wrong? Or do you believe on faith!

[Simon Mathews]

I agree with @DrBob that climate shouldn’t be considered the same as weather in the sense that general trends over time are easier to model as statistical noise is lessened. So whilst we cannot say whether it will rain next Tuesday we can say with some confidence that polar ice caps will continue to melt (for example).

In terms of solutions, I’m reminded of a passage in Jurassic Park (the book, not the film) where a character says “We need to act to save the planet” and the scientist replies “The planet can take care of itself, we need to act to save ourselves.” His point was that in the long term whatever we do to the planet we will not destroy it. Earth has been around billions of years longer than we have and can adjust to anything we can throw at it. However if we’re not careful there’s a very good chance we’ll render it uninhabitable for our species.

I’m also skeptical of our ability to control climate change. It is often impossible to predict what the effects of our “control” mechanisms will be. For example an attempt to control an animal population by culling can often lead to other animals taking advantage of the sudden lack of predators and running rife. We may take steps to alleviate (for example) the melting of polar ice caps and end up causing worse havoc. As Bob says we are in the middle of a huge experiment with our surroundings.

I know this view is a negative one and makes it seem like we shouldn’t bother doing anything. That’s not quite my outlook. I recycle and re-use shopping bags and all the little sensible things we can do. I think renewable energy sources are an admirable goal, though how achievable is another matter. I just worry about our ability to understand what global effects our behaviour has.