War with China over Taiwan. Inevitable?

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This topic contains 39 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by  Reg the Fronkey Farmer 3 days, 12 hours ago.

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  • #39512

    Unseen
    Participant

    The difference between China and the United States can be described this way: China plays a long game, America’s game changes every four or eight years with successive presidencies.

    America has proven bad at holding ground. The public has developed little stomach for keeping troops on the ground long term with no exit strategy.

    America’s power is projected power while Taiwan is spitting distance from the Chinese mainland. A shock and awe-style overwhelming invasion would overcome Taiwan almost instantly and be disastrous for the United States, if only because then the factories that manufacture 60% of the world’s microchips would then be under Chinese control.

    America’s only winning strategy in a war with China is the nuclear option and I don’t see us doing that. Do you?

    What we ought to be spending money on is on helping India develop into a power rivaling China. It has a larger population, more competent scientists, and is positioned to be a superpower that can balance and restrain China from its goal of dominating Asia.

    China or India are likely to become the dominant world superpower and we should be supporting the one whose values are closest to ours. India.

    #39521

    TheEncogitationer
    Participant

    Unseen,

    China under Emperor Xi, the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army is definitely a force to be reconed with, but how much we have in common with present-day India is another matter entirely.

    While Hinduism doesn’t presently seek to spread it’s particular flavor of irrationality either by evangelism or warfare, it’s doctrines of Karma and Samsara and Caste run anathema to the American Western idea that conditions of birth should not be a limit upon an individual’s freedom or a barrier to achievement.

    The idea that a garbage man (such as the man who provided garbage service to my Grandparents) could start with one $10 can at a time until he gets capital to get new trucks and Dumpsters and commercial contracts with big customers is impossible and inconceivable in the Hindu world.

    Also, India’s present Prime Minister, Nerendra Modi, has a definite authoritarian streak with his support of <i>Hindutva </i>which has been characterized as cultural Fascism.  I wouldn’t want to take a chance with Modi getting a “revelation” to spread Hinduism worldwide with our help.

    This kind of “revelation” is also a possibility since Modi’s international economics are Protectionist and practice favoritism with local industries. When goods and services don’t exchange accross borders, troops and bullets eventually do.  So India as some strategic partner and ally against Red China really isn’t a savory one.

    As for what to do regarding Red China and Taiwan, since we have already committed to siding with Taiwan, the best thing we could do is help Taiwan help itself.

    Israel has almost 75 years experience facing down and defeating much bigger and more powerful enemies.  Perhaps we could provide the hook-up between Israel and Taiwan.

    Israel could consult with Taiwan on how to build a “Titanium Dome” (like Israel’s “Iron Dome” against Hamas rockets, only used against nuclear missiles.)  Our industries, of course, could sell Taiwan at least some of the materiels for this venture.

    After that gets successfully built, then Israel could consult with Taiwan’s intelligence agency on how to infiltrate and sabotage Red China’s air force and missiles, just like Israel has done and is doing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

    Emperor Xi’s forces can’t easily attack Taiwan if his fighter jets and missiles can’t get off the ground or if the computers or satellites can’t guide them, or even if the planes and missiles explode on the ground.

    Just exploring one of many possibilities.

    #39522

    Unseen
    Participant

    @Enco

    Modi’s India is imperfect and has anti-Muslim racial overtones (in the modern sense in which a “race” can have nothing to do with genetics). So, we should look elsewhere in Asia for an ally to counterbalance China? Who?

    We are in a poor position, BTW, to criticize Modi. We ran a genocide against Native Americans that turned out to be on a larger scale than The Holocaust.

    Yes, Modi is showing authoritarian tendencies. Once again, we’re not in a position to criticize him. Clearly, our last President came perilously close to undoing the 2020 election and he and his GOP crew are working hard to make sure the next one is fixable if it fails to go their way.

    In order to spread a religion, it has to have some sort of appeal and I don’t see it spreading beyond its current borders. Too much of the world is accustomed to monotheism.

    I agree that India is an imperfect partner. Nevertheless, we don’t get to manufacture perfect partners. We must use the ones that exist even if it means holding our nose.

    And, by giving them a boost, we may gradually influence them toward a greater commitment to democracy.

    BTW, Israel isn’t facing anything like the third largest superpower in Hamas.

    I think of that scene in The Matrix where the agents arrive and berate the commander on the scene for sending his men in to arrest Trinity saying something like “I think my boys can handle one little girl” and the agent replies “Your men are already dead.”

    China will get Taiwan now or later because they play a long game.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 1 day ago by  Unseen.
    #39524

    _Robert_
    Participant

    How about we just make microchips here in the US again? We are responsible for China’s growth when Walmart is filled from floor to ceiling with Chinese goods. Can’t win a war against them now anyways. Going nuke on them is true Armageddon level stupidity.

    #39525

    Unseen
    Participant

    How about we just make microchips here in the US again? We are responsible for China’s growth when Walmart is filled from floor to ceiling with Chinese goods. Can’t win a war against them now anyways. Going nuke on them is true Armageddon level stupidity.

    Chips are being made in Taiwan, which supplies 60% of the microchips in the world because of low labor costs, I assume. How about migrating a lot of that manufacturing to India?

    One of my best friends is an Indian (and an atheist, as are many well-educated Indians) and I once told him that in order to be a major world power, India needs to make stuff. Big ticket stuff from ships to automobiles, stuff that customers outside India want to buy.

    India is brimming with scientists and engineers, so with a little help, they could build up into a power to rival and possibly even exceed China. To do so, they may have to have an authoritarian government similar to the one in China. China didn’t grow itself at three to five times the rate of American growth with the kind of back and forth and conflicting internal interests that characterizes our governmental system. How they run their show is none of our business. We have our own problems.

    #39526

    Unseen
    Participant

    @robert

    Too late to edit it, but the second-last sentence should have “their” in place of the “our.” Now it makes sense. LOL

    #39528

    _Robert_
    Participant

    We shouldn’t shop-out or sell-out our technologies to anybody…like our money-drunk 1% have been doing for 30 years. We are stupid enough. If Indian or Chinese engineers are so good, let them beat us without our help.

    #39529

    Unseen
    Participant

    We shouldn’t shop-out or sell-out our technologies to anybody…like our money-drunk 1% have been doing for 30 years. We are stupid enough. If Indian or Chinese engineers are so good, let them beat us without our help.

    You seem to be missing my point: We need to help India become a counterbalance. Our “We’re everywhere we’re everywhere” foreign policy approach is overextending us, diverting taxpayer dollars away from the kind of benefits Europeans take for granted (health care, education, etc.) and all the while propagating enemies all around the world.

    #39530

    _Robert_
    Participant

    No. How bout we stop playing games using other nations as chess pieces and just become the best we can be. How many times do we prop up an ‘ally’ just to go to war with them in 20 years?

    #39532

    Unseen
    Participant

    No. How bout we stop playing games using other nations as chess pieces and just become the best we can be. How many times do we prop up an ‘ally’ just to go to war with them in 20 years?

    Like Germany? Japan?

    #39534

    _Robert_
    Participant

    No. How bout we stop playing games using other nations as chess pieces and just become the best we can be. How many times do we prop up an ‘ally’ just to go to war with them in 20 years?

    Like Germany? Japan?

    Yeah exactly, I’m sure our Detroit workers were so happy we rebuilt their factories and then sold out our own workers. And don’t forget…China was our ally for that same war. Now look. Lets prop up India. Sure, Pakistan will love it.  Ah we worked our wonders in SE Asia. And Iraq, and Iran. We got no business strong arming the world when we don’t even understand WTF we are doing. We can’t even hold elections anymore. Stop with the all proxy war bullshit.

    #39535

    Unseen
    Participant

    @_Robert_

    A proxy war is one where a proxy fights our battles for us. I’m not proposing that India fight our battles but that they fight their own, but in ways that benefit us without having to play a puppeteer role.

    BTW, do you know that India gets the bulk of its weapons not from us but from Russia? Why? Because until India builds up its economy to where it should be, they have to spend wisely and with frugality. Russian tanks and aircraft are very serviceable but cost considerably less than ours. We could let them build our weaponry with their lower labor costs and it wouldn’t ding American workers much at all. Why? Because they aren’t going to buy those tanks and planes from us at our prices anyway, and yet it could result in some serious bonding.

    #39536

    TheEncogitationer
    Participant

    Unseen,

    Modi’s India is imperfect and has anti-Muslim racial overtones (in the modern sense in which a “race” can have nothing to do with genetics). So, we should look elsewhere in Asia for an ally to counterbalance China? Who?

    Well, Islam and being Muslim are religious categories, not ethnic or “racial,” but we’ll save the tired canard for another thread.

    We are in a poor position, BTW, to criticize Modi. We ran a genocide against Native Americans that turned out to be on a larger scale than The Holocaust.

    Look, if you are going to take an “Original Sin” position and take upon yourself the guilt of historic horrors even if you personally never participated in them, then stick with sack-cloth and ashes, not serious  discussions of foreign policy.

    I don’t make morality a matter of numbers.  Murder, plunder, and enslavement are wrong, no matter what the number of victims.  That said, China’s Warlords, Emperors, and Commissars throughout it’s history murdered their own citizens in amounts cumulating to well over 100 million.  The present ruler Xi and his henchmen don’t and won’t care about Native Americans except maybe as pawns, even if though they both share closely common ancestry.

    Yes, Modi is showing authoritarian tendencies. Once again, we’re not in a position to criticize him. Clearly, our last President came perilously close to undoing the 2020 election and he and his GOP crew are working hard to make sure the next one is fixable if it fails to go their way.

    Part of acknowledging a nation’s ugly past should include standing against a repeat, both here among ourselves now and anywhere else it is repeated.

    In order to spread a religion, it has to have some sort of appeal and I don’t see it spreading beyond its current borders. Too much of the world is accustomed to monotheism.

    Hinduism did have some appeal among Western Hippies and other “alienated” youths in the Sixties through the early Eighties.  It did have a tiny presence in the U.S. via movements like Hari Krishnas and those of Bagwhan Shree Rahneesh and Meher Baba.  The right circumstances could trigger a revival or even a violent evangelical movement.

    I agree that India is an imperfect partner. Nevertheless, we don’t get to manufacture perfect partners. We must use the ones that exist even if it means holding our nose.

    Ah, the old “fight-the-war-with-the-military-you-have” canard.  Not done by any good warrior ever.  You take what you have and try to make it better.

    BTW, Israel isn’t facing anything like the third largest superpower in Hamas.

    Hamas is the Proxy for Iran and is armed and financed by Iran, so really, Israel is up against a big regional power.  And although technically Israel is at peace with Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf States, that could easily be just Hudna, an Islamic temporary truce with the unbeliever, while the Jihadis rearm and regroup.

    So really, it’s still Israel against a hostile Islamic World, an indifferent Europe, and Russia and China plying influence with Israel’s enemies.  For the sake of Secularism and Freedom in the Middle East, I hope Israel stays on as a thorn that will impale any beast that dares to stomp it.

    I think of that scene in The Matrix where the agents arrive and berate the commander on the scene for sending his men in to arrest Trinity saying something like “I think my boys can handle one little girl” and the agent replies “Your men are already dead.”

    China will get Taiwan now or later because they play a long game.

    Like Alvin Toffler, I never use the words ‘trend’ or ‘predict.’  That is the real long game.  Must wait and see.

     

    • This reply was modified 1 week ago by  TheEncogitationer. Reason: Addendum of word and closing of space
    #39540

    Unseen
    Participant

    There are tons of Youtube what-if analyses of China vs. Taiwan, who would win, and in general what would happen with or without U.S. intervention. The thing is, time seems to be on China’s side, though it has its reasons for taking Taiwan sooner than later (securing Taiwan’s wealth and its microchip manufacturing capabilities). It could wait, knowing that ultimately Taiwan would end up being Hong Kong-ized first, then fully absorbed decades later.

    Many Youtube videos game out what would happen if America came to Taiwan’s defense seeming to show that as long as WW3 doesn’t break out, America could prevent a Chinese invasion from happening or of being successful if attempted. Of course, Taiwan might be largely destroyed in the process even if the United States prevailed.

    Bizarrely, when experts game out the situation, only the United States mainly (with help from allies like the Australian, the UK’s, and France’s navies) seems to be factored in.

    However, will nuclear-armed North Korea simply stand by and not either help China or use the conflict to attempt taking South Korea? And what about India and Russia? Iran?

    Just a few years ago, it was assumed that if WW3 started, it would start in the Middle East. The Taiwan situation has changed all that.

    What follows is a debate between four actual experts on the resolution “Taiwan is indefensible.” If Taiwan is literally indefensible, does that make the U.S. a kind of international Don Quixote in trying to defend it?

     

    #39543

    _Robert_
    Participant

    Would a majority of Americans sacrifice their own lives to maintain our “commitment” to Taiwan a month after we handed over Kabul to the Taliban? Seems to me half of America won’t even be bothered to wear a cloth mask to save fellow Americans. So of course we would lose any long term war with China, a country that has survived being invaded over and again for centuries. And if it goes atomic….well, fuck all.

    Taiwan doesn’t develop advanced microchips. They just build them. It is strategically ridiculous to become dependent on offshore outsourced chips. Intel can design and manufacture their own chips, so we know it can still be done here. They are spending $20 billion to build two new chip plants in Arizona. We really don’t need Samsung. How about we deal with our own failed democracy and looming civil war.

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