Failed Conversion

[.Spectator]

Of course his purpose was to win and everyone knew he would…..The question was – how and would Conor make an ass out of himself or hold his own, lol….Conor had a chance if he could land his left hook which he never did….

Anyway if you watch the post fight press conference you’ll see what I’m talking about. I’m not going to keep reiterating my point.

[.Spectator]

Conor definitely held his own but Floyd was in control of this fight. Make no mistake about it.

[jakelafortParticipant]

No, not everybody knew Floyd would win, including you, Belle. You said you would wager on Conor if you had the money.

As to the veracity of speakers like these fighters who have  huge egos i say no that they are not always speaking truthfully. Instead they will make assertions consistent with their ego.

[.Spectator]

Yeah I would have bet on his left hook. If it had connected it may have been over for Floyd…..

But the truth is that McGregor was way over his head. Even as well as he did it was only because Floyd let him to a certain extent. Conor’s inexperience showed. In boxing that is.

[Simon PayntonParticipant]

@jakelafort – “Having bet several million dollars the last 8 years i can tellya that some shit that is so improbable that it literally feels like a god is up there trying to fuck me.”

– I disagree with your analogy, it doesn’t fit with my situation, which would be: in the space of 12 years, you bet on exactly 5 horse races, at random, and win all 5.  It’s not like betting on a great many, and only winning some.

[jakelafortParticipant]

Simon i have had some freaky coincidences occur.  In college i got the same tray three straight days. There had to be thousands of trays in that cafeteria but i got one that said “boy george for president”.  Lets suppose there are 2000 trays so the odds of getting that tray on any given day are 2000 to 1.  Three times in a row the probability is 2000 x 2000 x 2000. ..8000000000 to 1.  Now that is some freaky shit.  After i got that tray two days in a row i told my buddy as we entered the caf that there was no way i was gonna get boy georged again.

Also at that same college i needed a topic for  a term paper in an american indians class. Did not know what to write about. So i called my dad from the telephone booth in the dorm (my shit must be old)  He says write about Pontiac’s rebellion. Simultaneously my roomie comes down to the first floor with a book opened to a title that says Pontiac’s rebellion. At this point in my life i had not heard of Pontiac.  The car yes, but not the leader of this rebellion. I was so spooked i thought there was  a connection between the two sources of Pontiac. (Took me a minute to realize it was just a highly improbable coincidence.)  (I even wrote a silly little poem something ..in a sea of incidences the absence of coincidence would be an incidence of coincidence) How to calculate the probability of the Pontiac coincidence. I dont know. I am an educated guy and read a lot. I was likely to encounter it at some point.  But at the same time from separate and unconnected sources? Pretty crazy.  I suspect the probability is way lower than the 8 and a lot of zeros of boy george.

In terms of horse racing and feeling like there is a god of fuck you horseplayer i could go on and on.    One of my favorite wagers is a multi-race wager known as a pick 4. It requires the player to have four consecutive winners.  You can use as many horses in all four legs as you like. But it gets pricey fast.  The cost of the wager is the number of horses in each leg times the denomination.  i have on so many occasions entered one number incorrectly in pick 4s and it turns out to be the horse i intended to use who wins but inadvertently have entered the wrong number.  And it is just one number that is off but so often that is the horse who wins that i inadvertently entered wrong. If it is a 6 on 3 on 1 on 5 then I have used 15 different horses on that ticket. And yet the mistake has cost me on so many occasions that i go crazy.  It is infuriating to spend time handicapping four races solidly,  construct the wagers that reflect my opinion, be correct and yet not have the wager i intend and end up losing.  So the part that is a negative coincidence is that it is the winning number that i always bollox.  Seemingly if it was a random screw-up then on most occasions it would be a harmless error. But over and over and fucking over it is the one number that is wrong that is a winner instead of a harmless loser.  I could go on and on about insane bad luck in horse racing that feels like an evil horse god is fucking me over.

As a kid my dad took my sis and i to a dog track gave us a program and bet on our picks. We went by names that sounded cool. We picked 6 winners in 9 races without reference to form or odds. That is pretty wild.

Point is most people will have coincidences that feel eerie or so i assume.  They think there must be some benevolent or malevolent force behind it.  Our brains want to make sense of patterns.  The reality is that it is not sound reasoning to attribute agency to these strange coincidences. We don’t notice the gazillion times when the opps for coincidences fail to materialize. We see when they do.

[Simon PayntonParticipant]

“We don’t notice the gazillion times when the opps for coincidences fail to materialize.”

– what I am saying is that in the time period I’m talking about, the 12 years when S. has been in my life, the number of these “gazillion times” has been a big fat 0.

You’re failing to take account of a situation of extreme need, and the exact same extremely freaky rescue appearing out of nowhere at the exact right time, 100% of times.

It’s not like when you and your friend happen to do a fart at the same time, and everyone lols.

I’m also not saying “Goddidit” or anything particular like that.  I’m just saying it all looks very significant, and in fact, just doesn’t look at all like chance in any way shape or form.

[Dang MartinParticipant]

Now we know why god [the universe, or whatever it is] lets 50,000 babies die every day from diarrhea caused by unclean drinking water. Seems he’s got other priorities.

But dang, 50,000 per day. Can’t be a coincidence.

[jakelafortParticipant]

Simon, it seems to me you are accepting something mystical only as a result of the coincidence being personal and answering a need.  The actual events you describe are mundane. The timing freaked you out.  It was right on time.  In the limitless opps for coincidence there is a classification for coincidence that answers a human need or is the source of tragedy or misfortune.

And our brains are meant to recognize patterns and make sense of the world. Our significance is no greater than a subatomic particle’s.  So you and Belle have attached significance to the fulfillment of a need.  I suppose you add to the spooky and eerie fulfillment because you saw it coming. But it is also natural and human to “expect” we will get what we need or want.

My Pontiac was also a human want or need. I was proceeding like a loony bird as the deadline to submit the paper was fast approaching.  To learn of Pontiac at the exact same time from two different people is so insanely improbable. But those insanely improbable circumstances aligning are inevitable.  It is just math.

Assuming i would have a 100 percent chance of learning about Pontiac in a span of 18 years any given second being that exact second has a probability of 1 in 567648000. But that is to find out from one source. I found out from two sources simultaneously. How often do we learn about a slightly obscure historical event from two sources at the same time? How many humans learned of the defenestration at Prague at the same moment from two sources? My coinicidence is almost beyond improbable.

But it isn’t. There is no god or entity or mysterious force who gives a flying fuck if Jake the procrastinator gets his paper submitted in time.

[Author]

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