Trade War

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This topic contains 21 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by  PopeBeanie 12 months ago.

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  • #28000

    _Robert_
    Participant

    So yep, Trump’s trade war could put us into a  recession, or maybe it was a created problem that could be solved to make him a hero.

    However, truth be told, the Chinese have been getting away with financial thievery for decades. And now that they sucked-in American firms as middlemen (and our “elites” we sold out our manufacturing base) they can actually exert big time control of our economy and wealth.

    Perhaps Trump is the “chosen one”, LOL. Make me think back to the Soviets and Reagan. He figured out the Soviets were actually small potatoes and easily crushed them. If the US/Euro leadership just accepts that the West is on the decline and we just roll over…well that is what will happen.

    Could Trump be right on this one thing?

    #28003

    Ivy
    Participant

    @robert

    Could Trump be right on this one thing?

    Perhaps. But I’m sure it’s because it will make him wealthier. Any bonus to us is just gravy, and a secondary concern. He does nothing that would harm himself, so you can be sure he will be profiting from his own trade war. If we happen to benefit from that great. But while he is “winning” the trade war, he is simultaneously turning the polar ice caps into soup with his climate change denier policies….While letting the rest of the world get ahead of us on renewable energy. I would say a short momentary win means nothing when he’s signing away our very existence to line his own pockets.

    #28004

    Ivy
    Participant

    This is how badly Trump does not understand our environmental impact… Trying to use nuclear bombs to prevent hurricanes?

    https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/donald-trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F

    He’s smoking crack

    #28006

    Unseen
    Participant

    While I’m sure some corporate spying and reverse engineering has been going on…on both sides…China made technology sharing a term in doing trade deals with them, so a lot of tech has been given them quite willingly. Not smart, perhaps, but don’t blame China for the ill thought out actions of greedy American businessmen.

    Business is war and stupid tactics can ruin a strategy.

    America’s biggest problem (and America’s problems, because of the scale of the American economy, are the world’s problems) is that because we are changing leadership every four years, we can’t play a long game the way Cina can.

    What America needs is a new form of government along with laws forcing administrations to honor international agreements long term. I’d like America to have something like the “vote of confidence” common in other governments. If we had one, Trump would have been in our rear view mirror many months ago.

    #28007

    _Robert_
    Participant

    This is how badly Trump does not understand our environmental impact… Trying to use nuclear bombs to prevent hurricanes? https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/donald-trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F He’s smoking crack

    Doesn’t even understand radioactive fallout. I know… we can just hide out under our desks.

    #28008

    Ivy
    Participant

    Doesn’t even understand radioactive fallout. I know… we can just hide out under our desks.

    and kiss eating seafood good bye

    #28009

    Davis
    Participant

    By the way Ivy, the trump filter can be found here for Chrome (if you have a different browser you’ll likely find one if you google your browser and “trump filter”.

    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/trump-blocker/nhmckipmafnikgjnaeadpngccggobaej

    #28011

    Here is an interesting perspective from the Chinese side.

    #28013

    _Robert_
    Participant

    Here is an interesting perspective from the Chinese side.

    If consumer electronics production did have to return to US soil, it would all have to be highly automated to be competitive. It would create some jobs, but perhaps not that many. The US still produces some electronics on shore for military and top secret applications. Can’t afford to have China supplying that sort of stuff. Some of the work would probably end up in Mexico well.

    China is working with US firms to complete their own jetliners…the COMAC C919. Boeing may not be selling as many aircraft to China as we think. Not sure it would be allowed to fly into all air-spaces, however. I do think the Chinese have a lot at stake here as well. The real fight will be over who gets to supply the growing markets in South America, Africa, India, etc.

    #28014

    _Robert_
    Participant

    #28015

    The real fight will be over who gets to supply the growing markets in South America, Africa, India, etc.

    Yes, I agree. China has been expanding its export markets for a number of years. Mexico has increased its imports from China by about 23% between 2017-18 which was one of China biggest percentage increases.  Not the first country to come to mind. Big players like Russia, India and Australia were up by over 12% each. However in the same time period exports to the USA were also up by a similar amount and the USA is China’s largest export market, accounting for almost 20% of total exports.

    Source

    #28018

    Davis
    Participant

    The Chinese weren’t getting away with anything. They offered good compensation to knowledgeable Westerners to come to China and help them develop their own products. They also outright bought the information they needed directly from companies, information managers or technical institutes. They got their hands on some info through nefarious means which is basically the entire history of world commerce and competition since the beginning of time. America has snatched more trade secrets in its few hundred years history than the rest of the world combined.

    Part of what gave the Chinese easier access to business intelligence was the lucrative offer of opening up their market to various countries. And `most of Europe, US, Canada, NZ, Australia all sold out every single moral backbone they had with China (over human rights) in order to sell out. Now China is starting to assert it’s authority and Canada, NZ and Australia are already paying a steep price. No country on earth is really doing anything about China’s mass internship and cultural irradication of the Huyghur Muslims. The problem isn’t one of trade as Trump makes it out to be. Their trade arrangements are pretty much how any arrangement is made between a developed country and a developing one. It is Chinas design for planting its economic routes in developing countries and actively encouraging their governments to break whatever democratic or enviromental regulations necesary to make it happen. Trump has it all wrong. But then…he always does. Is that a surprise?

    #28019

    Davis
    Participant

    No one ever wins in a trade war.

    –All the wisdom you need on the subject.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by  Davis.
    #28175

    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Here is an interesting perspective from the Chinese side.

    I predicted the Chinese rise decades ago, and attribute some of our economic crises and worker class angst in the recent past to our inability to cope with it. But I never knew how to really deal with it, other than focus on our own systems of education, enabling  higher overall quality of life especially for lower classes, refocusing our “national pride” onto whatever success we can achieve in raising security, community, and general happiness of our citizenry.

    Like, duh, are humans in general up to the task of getting their respective nations to focus on those kinds of planning ahead? Just as a relatively uninformed generalization (on my part), it seems smaller, internally secure countries that generally just learn to adapt to the world flow while at the same time focusing positively on their local health and happiness can do this. E.g. Scandanavian countries?

    In any case, humanity in general faces serious problems in this epoch of world economic growth. Here’s the thing about the big populations of India and China.

    No matter WHAT we do, there is at least one, entire generation of massively large populations of Indo-Chinese who are very, very happy to dedicate their lives and their family’s lives to the continuance of their economic growth, even at wages significantly lower than what we’re used to expecting. (But honestly, the Chinese at least tend to have a functional social safety net for health going for them, right?)

    I don’t know how well India is coping with this growth compared to China, but I think (or am I wrong?) it’s clear that in spite of corruption, Chinese leadership is (as Unseen mentioned above) able to plan and execute further ahead than those in charge of traditional capitalism. Capitalism maintains itself playing a quarter-to-quarter game, as do stock owners. Christ, up-to-the-minute investment news rules the biggest players. And government supports the capitalist short-term model. Perhaps a westernized India doesn’t have the long term potential that China does?

    (But when I say “long term”, I’m really only considering here the next generation or two. Who knows what billions of people will want and fight for after that?)

    I keep coming back to the Bannon/Trump agenda (plus their cash rich supporters). IMO, Epoch Times is stepping up to fuel the same kind of populism that won the 2016 election. Historically, Epoch Times has focused on beating the Chinese system, and (perhaps) is driven largely by Chinese expats (but I haven’t researched them deeply enough to really understand their history). I wouldn’t be surprised if Bannon is consulting for them, but even there, I’m just speculating before doing my research.

    Here is a more directly-on-topic interview with Bannon. (LOL, to be honest, I have to slow down the youtube video speed to keep up with this!):

    #28177

    _Robert_
    Participant

    Bannon says both illegal immigrants and cheap Chinese labor function as serfs for elites who benefit greatly from a so-called free market.

     

     

     

     

     

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