It's Time We Realized
January 3, 2020 at 5:31 am #29647
First, let me say that if you have a strong conviction Trump will win you can wager on him. Checked with a betting site and he is given a 40 percent chance of winning. So you can get better than even money on him.
As i mentioned it may augur ill for Trump that he went to bat for a bevy of candidates in those swing states during midterms who lost. I agree Ivy that some of those farmers will rationalize and see him as lesser of two evils. ON the other hand just a tiny move away from him in those critical states spells doom for him. You are also correct that there is a news bubble and spin that makes a great many of his supporters into the equivalent of members of a cult.
There is a lot of future in front of us in which things can go wrong for Trump. If the dems play their cards right during impeachment and either stall it or get court order/agreement to have key witnesses testify then he is likely to be hurt. For one it will make his denial and no quid pro quo a lie lit like a pink neon sign. Also there is a chance we may learn something about his connection to Russia that will be treason.
The news today may backfire. Trump ordered the hit on the 2nd most powerful person in Iran. Retaliation is distinct possibility. It might be here in USA, Israel, embassies or us military in middle east. But it has potential to escalate and for Trump to be blamed. He acted unilaterally and against advice in withdrawing troops from Syria and hanging the Kurds to dry. He has done that again. Trump acts in the most impulsive, precipitate manner so that if it escalates he may finally be perceived as a loose cannon by some of his supporters.
As far as interference with voting i have to assume that dems are prepared for that and in its eventuality we would be back in court like we were for Bush.January 3, 2020 at 6:13 am #29648
I don’t think the “impeachment inquiry” will change many minds. Those who are already made up are already made up. I would never vote for him. And those who would would never vote for a “dem socialist.” Trump has likened the word “socialism” to the Democratic Party in a way that no one sees any distinction.January 3, 2020 at 6:40 am #29649
There is a undoubtedly a solid base that will not budge. Facts be fucked. But some of his support is out of self-interest and that translates to the pocket book. Only one Trump supporter in my family and i discussed it with him. He says he voted for Trump because he is good for his business. But there is a limit to his support. He admitted that Trump starting a genocide would cause him to abjure his support. And i strongly suspect that there are similarly situated supporters who truly think that Trump is good for their pocket book and that is their primary concern. Sure, they share some of those racist/nativist sentiments but there is a limit to their willingness to back him.
If the senate gets to do its thing on its terms then i think the impeachment backfires for dems and makes his reelection more probable. But if it lingers and is pending i think it will work psychologically to undermine Trump. He will become even more higgledy-piggledy in his behavior. He may totally lose it. I also think that there are witnesses who will make a mockery of Trump’s no quid pro quo (how likely btw in his limited vocab. is he to use this language in any manner other than damage control?) and of the republican congress with their mock mockery of the dems. They will i believe testify that it was a scheme hatched by Trump strictly to further his political interests. And it is also possible other much more damning testimony will be elicited.
So if Trump becomes even more unhinged and or other evidence of wrongdoing emerges then both the independents and the Trump supporters who are in it for their economic interest will put country above self-interest. At least enough of them will to make the difference.
This reminds me of future betting on the Kentucky Derby. So much can go wrong between now and first saturday in May that no matter how sweetly a perceived contender was moving or how the added distance may favor that contender, that the proposition is very dicey. And Trump is just so amoral, simple, and impulsive that one of the contingencies may be his undoing. And he is far from a lock even if nothing goes badly.January 3, 2020 at 9:07 am #29650
Donald J. Trump
· Nov 29, 2011
In order to get elected, @BarackObama will start a war with Iran.January 3, 2020 at 4:12 pm #29651
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · Nov 29, 2011 In order to get elected, @BarackObama will start a war with Iran.
He ran on getting out of the Middle East, but when he wants to try to sew up the 2020 election, that goes right out the window.
It could be a disastrous move. In this age of asymmetrical warfare, Iran has plenty of options, including going back to the Jimmy Carter template of kidnapping some people and holding them hostage for an extended period, making Trump twist in the wind the way they did with President Carter.January 5, 2020 at 11:16 pm #29673
Oh my fucking God now we have a president committing threat of war crimes on Twitter and starting his election war. I am SO leaving the US THIS YEAR. I no longer want to be associated with this nation, and I refuse to be a part of any of it. I’m seriously done. I’m moving this year. Good bye and good riddance.January 5, 2020 at 11:17 pm #29674
I don’t understand how people can honestly be so stupid.January 5, 2020 at 11:18 pm #29675January 8, 2020 at 2:26 am #29687
Here we go….Again.January 8, 2020 at 8:09 am #29690
I’m pretty sure right now Trump is going: Zheesh…Iran actually fought back? What the fuck should I do now? While every advisor is already saying “I don’t think that’s a good idea sir” to every idea he spits out.January 8, 2020 at 1:48 pm #29691
Trump has one advantage; ‘thug think’. He and his Iranian counterparts understand each other. When I made it to the higher ranks in the corporate world, many of the decisions I became privy to baffled me. They turned out to be the correct guidance more often they should have. If tensions deescalate right now, it will be a win for Trump. Stock futures actually jumped up this morning.
I was listening to Senator Warren this morning. She simply makes too much sense for this world.January 8, 2020 at 9:52 pm #29697
I’m pretty sure right now Trump is going: Zheesh…Iran actually fought back?
Maybe I’m thinking too cynically on this, but I feel certain that Trump (and possibly other “thinkers” he pays attention to) considered this a risk well worth taking. I’ll never forget all the flags flying when Bush took us to Iraq, and during his re-election campaign. It became part of the package with nationalistic, “never forget ” slogans that kept us there, and the surreal pressures to act “patriotically” while also thinking we might actually be able to convert Iraq into a successful example of democracy.
And then came ISIS. Did they predict that, too? I don’t think the vast majority of war supporters did. And now, again, I’m hearing hawks saying “our enemy deserves to be taught a lesson and it’s their fault this is being escalated”.January 8, 2020 at 10:20 pm #29698
It’s hard to see because Trump is so far from being religious in any admirable sense that it takes one’s breath away, but for the religious right, Trump is their useful idiot.
I don’t see it as a one-way kind of puppeteering. Trump and his most powerful supporters are pathologically manipulative of the populous, ideologically following the examples of other successful authoritarians in the world. Bannon himself has predicted this turn in history, and has wanted us to get ahead of this curve for our own survival. I’m thinking now that this kind of eschatological fervor is what drives other modern, genocide-level wars.
Such world tragedies may indeed have religious-based roots, but it’s still the pathological “civilians” who hijack the religious platforms.January 8, 2020 at 10:27 pm #29699
PopeBeanie, maybe you’re unfamiliar with The Family, an evangelical Christian group that plays a huge behind-the-scenes role in American governmental affairs at the highest levels. Here’s a trailer for a documentary about them:
Watch the full documentary on Netflix and maybe other place you can Google as well.
January 8, 2020 at 10:50 pm #29701
- This reply was modified 3 months ago by Unseen.
Yeah I’m not in a hurry to see that, because I’ll bet we’re already on the same page. I tend to switch between Amazon Prime Video and Netflix, and The Family is at the top of my list when I switch.
The thing is, I think both religious authoritarians and political authoritarians usually choose to sleep in the same bed. It makes sense for atheists to point fingers more at the religious causes. In fact religion likely spawns a majority of those causes. And/but recent history shows how authoritarians nurture the religious pathos to take control over the populous (and motivate their war machines). We can spark dialog on the evils of religion, but we still have to vote evil-intending people out of office.
When you say “It’s time we realized”, I’m thinking we mostly already know that here, and “it’s time that religionists realize”. We need to sell this to theists, including the fact that our constitution specifically prohibits governmental support of (any specific) religion, else theocratic authoritarianism (like Sharia Law) naturally tends to result.
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