War in Europe. It has begun.

Homepage Forums Politics War in Europe. It has begun.

This topic contains 135 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by  TheEncogitationer 3 months, 2 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 136 total)
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  • #41502

    Unseen
    Participant

    The West is going nuclear…financially.

    Banning certain Russian banks from SWIFT.

    #41513

    Unseen
    Participant
    #41520

    Unseen
    Participant

    At this very moment, the full General Assembly of the U.N. is preparing to condemn Russia and demand that Russia withdraw. Strenuous financial sanctions by the international banking community—including Switzerland!—are already causing rushes on Russian banks and ATM’s. This war is hitting the average Russian and we’ll have to see how it affects Russian attitudes toward their fearless leader. There are peace marches in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia which are likely to increase. The Russian military could possibly abandon Putin over his ill-considered and embarrassing misuse of their resources.

    His Russian Blitzkrieg is, so far, a major flop. Unless he starts using his thermobaric weapons and FOAB’s (“Father Of All Bombs”), which will kill hundreds of thousands of civilians, it’s looking like his incursion is becoming a spectacular public misadventure.

    Jake wondered how wise it was to corner the Russian bear. Well, he’s officially cornered.

    #41525

    Unseen
    Participant

    This will bring the enormity of Russia’s situation home to the Russian person on the street. Football (soccer to Americans) is really a big thing in Europe, and to have to watch the World Cup without Russia participating will cause many Russians to rethink their support of Putin’s war.

    #41526

    Unseen
    Participant

    Duplicate post deleted.

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Unseen.
    #41530

    TheEncogitationer
    Participant

    Fellow Unbelievers,

    There are ongoing updates and extensive background information on what is now called The Russo-Ukrainian War on the eponymous Wikipedia Page:

    Russo-Ukrainian War–Wikipedia
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War

    As of this moment, in 5 days time Russian has 5,768 troops killad and Ukraine has 4,619 killed. Total up to 13,300 killed, 3393 civilians.

    At currant rates, in about 21 days, the total dead will equal the number of U.S. dead in the U.S. War in Southeast Asia from 1955-1975.

    Truly, if the object of war, to quote General Patton, is to make the other dumb bastard die for his country, then both sides are very adept at it. And since Ukraine is resolved not to give up in the face of the invasion, the remaining Ukrainians are a damn brave bunch indeed. So far, they’ve got this, but there’s still more to come. Let’s hope Russia backs down when more fighter planes start flying!

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 4 weeks ago by  TheEncogitationer. Reason: Spelling and grammar and word choice
    #41533

    Belle Rose
    Participant

    I am appalled that no one is helping the Ukrainians to fight. Everyone is afraid to stand up to Putin just like everyone was afraid to stand up to Trump. It’s infuriating.

    #41534

    Autumn
    Participant

    I am appalled that no one is helping the Ukrainians to fight. Everyone is afraid to stand up to Putin just like everyone was afraid to stand up to Trump. It’s infuriating.

    Right now the situation hovers on the precipice between a violent conflict and catastrophic warfare. I’m sure no one wants to leave Ukraine dangling in the wind, but right now the difference between helping and throwing gasoline on the fire is not clear. As of now, thousands have died over the course of years of on and off again fighting. But the wrong decision moving forward risks the potential for hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives lost, and countless more left shattered. It’s not a decision any nation should be entering into lightly.

    #41535

    Unseen
    Participant

    I am appalled that no one is helping the Ukrainians to fight. Everyone is afraid to stand up to Putin just like everyone was afraid to stand up to Trump. It’s infuriating.

    Supplying the Ukrainians IS helping them to fight. Citizens of all Western/NATO countries are free to go to the Ukraine and receive a weapon and ammo from the Ukrainian government.

    You can’t seriously want the #1 and #2 nuclear powers to start shooting at each other…or can you?

    Russia has roundabout 6,000 nuclear warheads. Half a dozen or so of those hitting our largest cities, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, and Philadelphia would be the end of America for many decades, but there’s no guarantee it would be just six cities. Of course, Russia is more vulnerable. If you take out just Moscow, that would be the end of Russia for decades because its power structure is far more centralized.

    Both Russia and the U.S. have nuclear attack submarines wandering the oceans, each one carrying enough ICBM’s to pretty much end life on Earth.

    This is why we want to avoid engaging Russia in a shooting war.

    To make matters worse, Putin is showing signs of mental illness.

    #41536

    Unseen
    Participant

    The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia

    Russia …has transformed into what political scientists call a personalist dictatorship, where the whims of one man, and one man only, determine policy, a fact that has terrifying implications for Russia and the world.

    Americans tend to see the world in much the same way as President Joe Biden frames it in his speeches, divided neatly between “democracies” and “autocracies.” But the reality is that authoritarian states exist on a political spectrum depending on how much power is exercised by a single individual—and where states land on this spectrum has a big impact on matters of war and peace. At one end, you have civilian-run regimes, like Hu Jintao’s China or Leonid Brezhnev’s Soviet Union, where political power is checked and shared within a ruling party. At the other, you have personalist dictatorships like that of, say, Saddam Hussein, where rivals are purged, loyalists are rewarded, cults of personality flourish, and all authority runs through the glorious leader.

    The political science literature suggests that personalist dictatorships are more erratic and dangerous to the outside world than other sorts of autocracies.

    #41537

    Davis
    Moderator

    No one can possibly rule any large organisation (let alone nation) alone. The most tight fisted ruler still depends on those who help keep them in power. If they displease enough of these people, they absolutely WILL be overthrown. No ruler at all is ever immune to this. Their power is based entirely on those closest to them to help keep them propped up. The only reason he is doing what he is doing is because not enough of those who help maintain his power disagree with what he is doing. They have also done the metric that the advantages of going through with this outweighs the potential harm to their own interests.

    #41538

    jakelafort
    Participant

    Am thinking that the approach to the conflict in Ukraine is bad.

    Do we want to fuck with super powers in their sphere of influence? I know the USA shit bricks when Russians had weapons in Cuba. Boneheaded Kennedy nearly got us into nuclear war with the evil empire. Hypothetically trumpsters go even farther afield in their war against reason, against loss of liberty in the pandemic, in their desire to keep out immigrants etc. and decide to secede in an area that is approximately what USA took from Mexico. The feds fight to preserve the union and the Trumpists plead with Russia to fight with them. How do we react?

    Kiev was the center of Russian commerce and culture from idk 600 to 1500 or so when Moscow emerged. The people speak Russian. Isn’t the claim of Russia to Ukraine roughly parallel to the hypothetical? When is it treason to oppose the hands of tyranny? Depends on one’s political interests, right?

    Maybe that is all beside the point. Like some aspiring king in medieval Europe who has a claim to the throne, does its legitimacy mean much of anything? The world of realpolitik is might makes right. Niceties and nuance in arguing the philosophy of morality is meaningless. I don’t buy the notion that outsiders care about or will lose a wink of sleep for the Ukrainians. We as a species have demonstrated repeatedly how we care which is not at all. Who helped the Irish during the famine abetted by the English as a million or so died? Who helped the Armenians in Turkey during their genocide? Who even raised a stink about the poor Africans in various conflicts who were victims of genocide? And that is something USA could have stopped without much effort. I could go on but ya get the point. And again i think the better outcome is to have Zelensky surrender. “Our noble people have fought valiantly but the futility of more wasted lives weighs too heavily to continue…blah blah blah… That will allow Putin to save face and save lives. Does it set a bad precedent? Not sure it matters since super powers if they are determined can take what the fuck they want. The stakes involved in fighting them are too great to risk real war.

    If outsiders continue to give arms and impose harsh sanctions the Ukranians will probably have far more deaths during the conflict and the aftermath will be worse still. Secret police will be knocking off political enemies and civil liberties will be curtailed. Unless Russia backs off in short order that is nearly a sure thing. Ukraine can’t prevail against Russia. If the resistance is strong the weaponry and Troops are augmented and escalate. Shouldn’t we accept the inevitability of the outcome for the sake of Russians and Ukranians?

    Then the obvious concern Unseen bring up that increased pressure on Putin has the possibility of turning this into nuclear annihilation. Millions or billions will die. Imagine climate change after that? Yeah civilization is on a collision course with its end. Do we want to hasten the inevitable or continue around the merry go round until we are dumped off?

    #41539

    jakelafort
    Participant

    Davis, what you’ve written is logical. On the other hand how do we explain N. Korea? That nation is a nightmare. The lives of the citizens are unspeakably horrible. And history has many examples of dictators who continued in power when their inner circle could have had them assassinated.

    #41540

    Davis
    Moderator

    The influence one has goes down exponentially as you go down a level (especially in more authoritarian regimes). Those who help prop up a leader in power must also keep those below them happy to some extent. This continues down the line with rapidly decreasing individual influence. Kim Yung IL would be gone in a heart beat if he did things that threatened the interests of the elites. In a sense they are all held hostage by their environment forced to ensure those above them keep their interests, to not too displease those above them nor those below them. They are all in precarious positions and ambitious people will strike if the wrong decisions are made or ones luck runs out. North Korea is in a nightmarish cycle where until enough people are willing to take huge risks to overthrow the status quo or a leader lakes too many mistakes…the nightmare goes on. Just because each actor maintains their own interests doesn’t mean the majority realise their best interests in sync.

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 4 weeks ago by  Davis.
    #41542

    TheEncogitationer
    Participant

    Belle Rose,

    Actually, there are volunteers for Ukraine from Azerbaijan and Chechnya, but that is a concern in and of itself. Could they be Islamists using the war as a chance for Jihad practice or even to establish an Islamic State in the Baltics?

    I do know that during Lebanon’s Civil War in the Seventies and Eighties, terrorist groups of every nation and flavor used Lebanon as a place to test out their weapons on live targets and practice tactics.

    And it wasn’t just the PLO, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad. Everybody from the ETA Basque Terrorists to Ireland’s IRA to the Italian Red Army to Neo-Nazis from Europe and the U.S. all came to Lebanon to play until Israel came in and spoiled the fun, to the cheers of Lebanese who were sick of all the atrocities and horror.

    A fellow Atheist Jillian Becker wrote a whole excellent book on the subject called The PLO: The Rise and Fall of The Palestine Liberation Organization. Highly recommended!

    Anyway, despite the questions raised by Azeris and Chchens in the area, you are not alome in supporting Ukraine!

    I’m getting conflicting information on whether arms and ammo can be donated.

    On one hand,Ammo, Inc. is offering to domate one million rounds of small arms ammunition to the cause of Ukrainian freedom:

    AMMO, Inc. Offers to Donate One Million Rounds of Ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Support of Their Fight for Freedom

    On the other hand, I also read this;
    No, we can’t donate guns and ammo to the Ukrainians. We checked
    Unless Joe Biden’s State Department or the DoD get involved.
    https://thegunwriter.substack.com/p/no-we-cant-donate-guns-and-ammo-to?s=r

    Sadly, unless Ammo, Inc. has connections, ITAR is probably going to prevail over them.

    There are also other ways to help listed here:

    13 Ways to Help the People of Ukraine Right Now
    by Gabby Shacknai
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/gabbyshacknai/20

    I hope all this is helpful and that we can all be helpful at this time.

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