July 1, 2020 at 4:08 am #32005
OK folks, this is it! Let’s wager our bets now!
Who do you think is going to win the presidential election in the US this November?
I have heard some pretty interesting theories, but I am wondering what you all think… I have an opinion but I would like to hear yours first LOL!July 1, 2020 at 4:23 am #32006
Biden in a landslideJuly 1, 2020 at 4:48 am #32007
What is your logic?July 1, 2020 at 4:57 am #32008
Human logic…as such it is flawed and subject to the foibles and conceits of our species. Having said that it comes down to the swing states. Not since Lincoln has there been a more polarizing prez. A preponderance of his base is imperturbable. But he will leak dandruff because not all of his adherents are cultists. Some are selfish pricks who are of opinion that he is the guy who will enhance their pocket book. Others like the perception of the maverick who speaks his mind and upsets the entrenched power.
The developments of his term are his undoing. Prominently and most assuredly the response to the pandemic will upend any illusions of being seaworthy. I just like to say that word. Seaworthy. The one thing that trumps economics is life itself. There is no possible way he could have fucked this thing up more. I wont explore those cuz we all know his many pandemic fuckups that are directly responsible for loss of life and suffering.
Furthermore i can only anticipate that by time of election the usa will be in worse shape. Far worse. Deaths and economy..possibly even greater civil unrest. Additionally Trump has is on the wrong side of the zeitgeist. I cant wait to see the sickening sycophant republicans turn on him.July 2, 2020 at 9:37 pm #32054
What are your policies for a 2nd term?
I think I look like the Lone Ranger with a mask on.
At least the swamp was drained!July 3, 2020 at 11:31 am #32064
Ivy – @asianne, I really don’t know. I have participated in presidential elections since Ronald Reagan vs President Jimmy Carter. However, this is truly the first time I am voting for the proverbial “lesser of two evils”, and that would be Joe Biden. Yet, I don’t really know. The electorate have already shocked the pollster over and over again in history, and definitely in 2016. Like @jakelafort, I would lean toward Biden wining because (a) Trump lost the popular vote in 2016; (b) Trump has proven to be one of the most divisive presidents in history; (c) the media does lean left which continues to promote Mr. Trumps faux pas and beguiling statements; (d) the Trump Administration’s mishandling and poor leadership regarding the coronavirus… I could add more. But like I said, the electorate continues to surprise us all, so my predictions mean nothing – We will know for sure on Wednesday, November 4th!
July 3, 2020 at 1:10 pm #32068
- This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by fullermingjr.
I remember when @ivy forecast Trump to win long before anyone else. I entertained voting for him for a few days because I thought the left was becoming ‘troppo molto’ anti free-expression. I didn’t watch his TV shows but when I investigated him I thought no way is this fool going to get himself elected. Unfortunately there was a smart guy named Steve Bannon writing the script. The man behind the curtain.
The only times he has impressed me is when he seemed slow to consider military actions. I also think playing hardball with Chinese is the right thing to do. Other than that it has been a disaster. The phony bow to the evangelicals, the C19 response, licking the boots of dictators, the impeachment, the ‘fake news’ nonsense, the firing of whistleblowers and investigators, the immigrant persecutions and Mexico wall, the nod to racists, the hidden personal tax records, the huge addition to the deficit, the general lack of respect for institutions, nepotism, the tweeting from the can, the general disregard for the Constitution…it just does not get worse than that.July 3, 2020 at 3:36 pm #32070
Does anyone think it possible that Trump will not run again if the gap between him and Biden worsens? He has no agenda for a 2nd term and generic ballot polls put the Dems double digit figures ahead (53\42). I know a week is a long time in politics but COvid19 will still be in the news and I don’t think BLM will be going quiet for November.July 6, 2020 at 2:54 am #32141
Does anyone think it possible that Trump will not run again if the gap between him and Biden worsens?
Ha! I wish it would be that easy. No… I think Trump’s strategy from this point forward is to continue to say some of the right things in some instances, and completely contradict himself in others, continue to confuse and divide people. Because he knows that his most loyal followers will believe anything he says. I do not see him backing down. I think between now and November it’s going to get worse. A LOT worse. He is going to become the most manipulative. Fox News is not going to part ways with him. Regardless of how bad the virus gets, he’s not going to take responsibility. His only concern is keeping the economy good. I know there are a lot of Trump supporters who are turning away from him. But it is unclear to me if they live in the right districts to satisfy the electoral college. My prediction is that he will win a second term, unless Joe Biden picks the right pick for a VP. Since he has not announced that yet, it’s too early to tell for me. I think he is going to probably pick a woman of color for his VP. We will see what happens. If he were smart he would pick a republican woman of color for VP. Then he would stand a better chance. I think the election all hinges on the VP Joe Biden chooses. As for trumps strategy, he is going to continue to spew hatred, and divide our nation. This is basically what modern day Civil War looks like and we are in it right now. We have never been more divided.July 6, 2020 at 3:00 am #32142
This is funny…aw how cute.
July 6, 2020 at 3:07 am #32144
- This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by Ivy.
BTW: I definitely think he’s going to cheat. If he wins his second term it’s not at all going to be because it was done legitimately. I definitely think he’s planning to skew the election. I think that’s already been underway for a while. I think he’s going to use Covid as an excuse, and the voting ability is not going to be made available fairly to everybody. I think he’s going to continue to spread conspiracy theories, either directly or indirectly. I believe that he’s going to make up a lot of bad things about Joe Biden and his VP pick. I think there are a lot of other ways. And he’s going to continue to get away with it. Because there are certain people in his corner who will never turn on him. I think he’s already got it figured out. I think we’re pretty much fucked. I think that Joe Biden will win if he chooses the right vice president. If he finds a vice president that Republicans can get behind then we stand a fighting chance. Otherwise…We are royally and utterly fucked for another four years
July 7, 2020 at 11:56 am #32147
- This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by Ivy.
“I just noticed that there weren’t any candidates running with important characteristics like sanity and coherency,” said WestJuly 7, 2020 at 4:42 pm #32148
Does anyone think it possible that Trump will not run again if the gap between him and Biden worsens? He has no agenda for a 2nd term and generic ballot polls put the Dems double digit figures ahead (53\42). I know a week is a long time in politics but COvid19 will still be in the news and I don’t think BLM will be going quiet for November.
Worsens? The gap is already so wide now that, barring a miracle, massively successful voter suppression, or a huge blunder by Biden, the popular vote and probably the Electoral College vote are a foregone conclusion. Things could get marginally better and Trump would still lose.
Trump hates to lose and never admits to having lost, so even if he were to lose he would paint it as something else: a stolen election, a loss due to the pandemic (despite his heroic efforts, of course), so he needn’t drop out before election day.
He never wanted to be President in the first place and he clearly hates the job, so he might use the election loss as a creative way of essentially resigning so that he can get back to what he origininally intended to do, which was, I think to springboard from his loss to establishing a Trumpist populist political party OR a Trump-branded TV network a la Fox, only stupider. Or both.
It would be good for the Republicans were Trump to drop out, because they could put up a Republican with an actual chance of beating Biden. I’m thinking of candidates like John Kasich, former Ohio Governor, or Mike DeWine, the current Ohio Governor, who, BTW, is doing a better than average job fighting the virus. For those of you outside the U.S., you may not know how important Ohio is to Republicans. It could just be coincidence, but no Republican has ever won the presidency without also winning Ohio. It’s what you might call a bellwether state. A harbinger state to watch before the election. Today, Biden leads in Ohio in most polls, but within the margin or error. A candidate from Ohio could be just the nudge the GOP wants there. (Still, even a win for the GOP in Ohio is no guarantee.)
Many Americans want a conservative President. The sad antics of Trump hasn’t changed that. What they got in Trump was not a conservative. They’d still like to have one who is culturally and fiscally conservative without creating the daily drama and turmoil that has characterized Trump’s administration. A Kasich or DeWine would fill that bill.
Did I say that the GOP would have a better chance in November with Trump out of the picture? Well, if Trump did resign or drop out, there’s no guarantee he’d stay out of the process. He could cause plenty of trouble for whoever the party put up in his place.July 7, 2020 at 6:13 pm #32153
Agree with Unseen that Trump is going to lose and barring a fortuitous occurrence lose by a large margin.
It is unlikely he will simply concede. He is gonna pull some shit. Will it lead to an insurrection-a modern civil war? Stay tune sports fans.July 7, 2020 at 6:33 pm #32154
Yes, it is all about Ohio. I might be in Ireland but I am hooked on US politics and have been for years. The perception from over here is that the Republican Party is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Trump Inc.
John Kasich would be a good choice from the GOP viewpoint. He sees the damage Trump has done to the perception of the party. He has said that strong leadership is needed on the world stage when dealing with authoritarian regimes and recently tweeted that it is “time to stop being afraid” and “for elected Republicans to hold him accountable”. That echoes the words of John Mann (Democrat) back in 1974 when discussing the impeachment of Nixon that ”If there is no accountability, another president will feel free to do as he chooses but there may be no watchman in the night”.
What do you think of Mayor Bottoms as a choice for Biden? I think I will put a bet on it happening. I hope she gets over her Covid illness quickly.
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