PopeBeanie

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  • #61243
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Well ok then, thanks for y’all being candid.

    Now back to our regular programming, the Trump Show.

    Episode Fudging with Elections.

    #61238
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    I’ve been expecting American politics and authoritarinist success to keep getting worse, and they have. I don’t get why others here don’t seem to be as worried or bothered by it. So I hope it’s because I’m wrong. In any case, I ran into a more optimistic view that includes a more optimistic prediction, and it reminds me that we’ve survived similar kinds of challenges in the past.

    #61190
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    The live-studio, extended version recording of Escapism at the Honda Center is so notable, imo, and this reactor’s commentary is so enlightening (for me), I recommend watching it:

    #61104
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    I didn’t post their new release “Ritual” because I don’t love. I don’t dislike it either, I just take it in as part of TW’s evolution, and I still believe they’re doing what they want to do, not just following orders from above.

    Meanwhile, almost all of the all of the reactions I’ve seen have come in strongly loving it, including first time TW watchers excited to see what else TW’s produced. So I’ll post their OMV of Ritual here, and a very positive reaction from Anna Vaskelainen. She’s a professional vocal coach, and I always learn something from her.

    Reaction by Anna:

    #61080
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    How about waiting for AI to be sophisticated enough that it can be divorced from ideological capture?

    So an AI free of illogic or ideological capture is fantasy […]

    I think what AI “will become” will be more of an issue someday, but not before “what AI will be used for” is more apparent. AI evolution will also depend on how people use it, and unfortunately, I’m pretty sure that bad actors will be the first to have some control over those directions.

    Jake, iirc you’ve mentioned the possibility (or hope, I think) that AI will become objective, in non-humanlike ways. (If I misremember this about you, sorry, we can still assume that some people believe that.) What I want to emphasize is that AI evolution is still in the hands of humans, and if it’s ever possible to vaccinate AI against ideologicial motivation, it won’t stop some humans from steering their AI in ideological directions.

    At the top of my mind would be ideologues like theocrats, especially those we’ve seen trying to change the world according to how they believe (or claim) what Allah would want. I would not exclude other religions from similar, “righteous” goals. Trump himself could add his own chapter to bibles, and people would buy it.

    Maybe Trump.ai will rule, someday? Silly me should have checked before writing this post. Trump.ai is taken, but TrumpBible.ai is still available.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 1 day ago by PopeBeanie. Reason: trumpbible add
    #61070
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Never mind Pope. After reading your line again i think you are indicating that the meaning has been watered down so that ambiguity is read into it rather than questioning its plain meaning and efficacy.

    I wasn’t implying that, although that may not be inaccurate. SCOTUS itself has been watering down and resetting precedents on other interpretations, as well. I think I had that overall picture in my head as a sad fact, and or unfortunate fate.

    Discussions about expanding the size of the court also worry me. I’m for it as a rightful means of compensating for more than one kind of GOP power grabbing, but why give GOP/King Donald (shutup Donnie!) any incentive to do some pre-emptive expansion? Come on, y’all. Have to play sneakier, like Project 2025 (et al) has and never stops… with God on their righteous side.

    #61043
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Here’s one of the best summaries I’ve seen in a while, of relatively current news, and without a lot of hype (IMO). About 12-1/4 minutes:

    (Maybe mentioning “Mush Brain” came close to hype, but that’s just me thinking of Trump as a mentally defective, parentally abused victim, but which the world would have been better off without.)

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 6 days ago by PopeBeanie. Reason: minor typos/added info
    #61042
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Context matters. “Sweet Nothings” is an effective click bait title. While the content is enlightening anyway.

    I greatly disliked the book title “A Universe from Nothing”, and didn’t even consider until your piece (Reg) that OK, maybe the publisher pushed that name, not Krauss. Wait, Gemini AI says Krauss kept that title after his youtube video of a 2009 lecture with that name went viral.

    It’s interesting that consciousness feels so eternal to most humans. “So therefore” 1) Eternal consciousness must have always existed, even before we existed; 2) It will exists in us even after our time on Earth.

    OMG how profound, especially for atheists: Nothing Comes from Something. (Oh well, so it won’t matter at all.)

    Trust me, it’s only about 25 seconds:

    #61041
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Separation of Church and State, even as a meaning-distilled colloquialism not explicitly mentioned in the US Constitution, has entered a new phase of religious, cultural evolution in USA. Behind the scenes, Trump’s “I dunno who that is” Project 2025, is likely celebrating. So must some of 6-3 SCOTUS. I predict time will soon enable some of these forces to feel open and honest enough to stand up and brag about their accomplishment, and righteousness.

    There’s no way Trump, by himself, could have planned this out so well.

    Maybe after November some of them will proudly “come out”, and get more positive coverage from our evolving media landscape?

    #61019
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Pretty smart observations. I recently decided I want as much locally and cloud-stored files as possible for more efficient “workflow” and backup, one reason I chose Perplexity Pro.

    Last prediction I noticed was that chip prices will come down near beginning of 2027. More companies want to manufacture chips, especially with Taiwan at even higher risk than it was before the war in Iran. (Thanks, now STFU Donny!) I’m lucky to have some older, terrabyte lan-level storage handy.

     

    #60883
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    ‘World-first’ vaccine designed by artificial intelligence.

    That’s so cool! I visualized a way to explain fairly simply how AI can do this, treating DNA/RNA just like another language.

    1) Via sheer computation, an LLM learns and documents patterns in a language, and can then predict which new patterns can be described that are likely to be relevant to a specific question it is asked.

    2) DNA has language rules and patterns, kind of like how recipes are written in cookbooks. (And real cookbooks employ their own language.) Viruses (and other microbes like bacteria) can pack DNA or RNA as instructions for their recipes.

    —– —– —– —– —– —– —–

    But I needed more help explaining this, went to Perplexity Pro AI, picked out one of its answers and edited it for the result, below (yes I fixed some typos):

    1. LLMs are pattern hunters and detectors. They learn which symbol sequences tend to appear together, and which ones are informative for answering a question. They don’t “understand” English the way humans do; they learn the statistics of how the symbols behave.
    2. DNA and RNA are also strings of symbols, written in a four‑letter alphabet. They obey their own “grammar”. To an AI model, this just looks like a different language or a very specialized cookbook.
    3. A virus’s “cookbook” contains recipes for how to attach to cells, get inside them, copy itself, dodge the immune system, and jump to the next host. Different strains rewrite those recipes slightly, but they often keep similar core steps because those are essential for survival.
    4. The AI model actually trains this LLM‑style system on:
      • lots of viral genomes or protein sequences, and
      • annotations like “this region is conserved across many strains” or “this region is targeted by neutralizing antibodies”.
      • the model can learn correlations between sequence patterns and those labels. Then, when you show it a new virus or a big collection of related viruses, it can:
        • spot shared sequence motifs that recur across many strains,
          estimate which motifs are most likely to be shared,
        • and flag them as high‑value candidates for a vaccine to target.

    A cadre of scientists and their corporate structure do the rest.

    #60881
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Arian Playing Cards are great. Aryan ID Cards are not. Must always be bigger than the enemies of science, even if they don’t want to return the favor.

    Correction and benevolence appreciated.

    I lost sleep again, getting wind of even more horrible destruction in their cards by Thanksgiving or so.

    #60869
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Polititains with the power to endanger the health of their citizens should be the ultimate Null Set. Getting them out of office is the first aid and keeping them out of office is the prophylactic.

    By the way. I made The Mystery Science Theater 3000 Thread for entertainment and leisure, so replies can be at leisure as well. Most of them are host segments that only last less than 5 minutes and others aren’t much longer.

    I know I posted a bunch of videos at once, so it might be overwhelming, but MST3K is so good, as are the spin-off programs Film Crew, Cinematic Titanic, and RiffTrax.

    No worries, I wasn’t complaining. But adding doses of reality wrt lab animal/human ethics wiped the evil smile off my face. Temporarily! I found another set of Arian playing cards in my dreams.

    #60856
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    And carcinogenity is discovered by tests on rodents that notoriously don’t extrapolate well to humans.

    Wouldn’t this be a great period in USA to run tests on the most anti-science politicians?

    #60822
    PopeBeanie
    Moderator

    Perplexity has a misapplied word. Less. Should have been least. Does it simply copy paste?

    The only place I see “less”, at least in Reg’s post, is in the word “tenseless”.

    The free will and compatibilism was not very deep or convincing.

    I admit to not being able to fathom the whole block universe concept, much less its significance. Concluding free will’s existence vs nonexistence is where I can’t decide if it’s actually a relevant or meaningful question.

    If I presume it exists, I’ll just “act naturally”. If I presume it does not exist, I’ll still just “act naturally”. It’s the same “me” inside, either way, and regardless of how we each define “me” for ourselves. I say this knowing that, in spite of many people believing God gave them free will, they’re often also believing that God influences them and/or determines all futures. In the end, no matter what we discover or decide, what difference does fw vs no fw make?

    I asked Perplexity Pro (PP). Most typographical emphases are mine. None of it says anything that would seem new to most of us us. PP leaves behind links to sources, practically every paragraph. Exporting it to a PDF file looks nice, and puts all the links at the end of the document.

    ME:
    what difference does it make for any of us to choose to believe or to not believe in “free will”?

    PP:
    Believing or not believing in free will doesn’t just change a philosophical label; it tends to shift how people feel about themselves, how they behave, and how they judge others, even if the underlying physics of the universe is exactly the same either way.

    Below are the main ways this shows up in actual humans, based on psychology and philosophy work.

    Effects on your own motivation and mood
    Studies in social and personality psychology suggest that people who believe they have real choice and control tend to function with higher motivation and well‑being. In longitudinal data, stronger belief in free will predicts higher life satisfaction and “flourishing” a couple of months later, even after controlling for other traits.

    When experimenters temporarily weaken people’s belief in free will (for example, by having them read deterministic arguments), people show reduced intrinsic motivation and effort on tasks. Self‑determination theory more broadly says that feeling autonomous and self‑directed is a basic psychological need; when that sense of autonomy is undermined, mood and fulfillment tend to drop.

    A nice way to put it: whether or not we “really” have metaphysical free will, living as if your choices matter seems to support better mental health and engagement with life.

    Effects on behavior and ethics
    There is a body of experimental work where researchers nudge people toward either “you have free will” or “everything is determined and you have no real choice” and then look at behavior. Across many of these studies:

    • Stronger belief in free will correlates with higher self‑control, self‑efficacy, and job satisfaction.
    • People who endorse free will more strongly tend, on average, to report higher ethical standards and to perform better academically or at work.
    • When belief in free will is experimentally weakened, some studies find more cheating, more prejudice, and harsher attitudes toward others, though these effects are not always huge and some have been contested or failed replications.

    So for many people, believing “my choices are up to me” encourages them to act as if their choices matter, which nudges behavior in pro‑social and disciplined directions.

    Effects on how we judge and punish others
    Belief in free will also matters for how we think about moral responsibility and punishment. People who strongly believe in free will are more inclined to say that wrongdoers are fully responsible and deserve punishment, because they “could have done otherwise.”

    Psychological work suggests that one reason belief in free will is so widespread is that it supports holding others responsible and justifying punishment of harmful behavior. On the other hand, skeptics worry that if people en masse come to see everyone as “complex biochemical puppets,” that might erode moral concern or accountability.

    Interestingly, when ordinary people are given deterministic scenarios (future actions predicted from genetics and environment), many still say the agent acted of their own free will and is morally responsible. That suggests everyday thinking often adopts a “compatibilist” stance: even if causes stretch back before we were born, we still treat people as responsible when actions flow from their own values and character.

    Consequences of denying free will
    People on all sides of the philosophical debate worry about what happens if belief in free will collapses socially. Empirically:

    • Short‑term “no free will” primes can nudge people toward more selfish or unethical choices and reduce effort or persistence.
    • Seeing yourself purely as a machine driven by outside forces can make activities feel less meaningful and less worth struggling for.

    At the same time, some thinkers argue that letting go of a strong, libertarian free‑will picture can promote compassion: if you see behavior as heavily shaped by genes, upbringing, and environment, you may become less vindictive and more focused on prevention and rehabilitation rather than retribution.

    So the “no free will” stance isn’t automatically nihilistic; its effects depend a lot on how it is integrated—whether it becomes “nothing matters” or “causes matter, so let’s change the causes.”

    How this cashes out for an individual
    For a single person trying to live a decent, meaningful life, the practical upshot of the research is roughly:

    • Acting as if your choices and efforts matter tends to support motivation, self‑control, and well‑being, regardless of the ultimate metaphysics.
    • Belief in total powerlessness (“I literally couldn’t do anything differently, ever”) tends to be associated with worse outcomes, especially if it undermines any sense of agency or responsibility.
    • You can hold a fairly hard‑nosed, naturalistic view of causation and still preserve a working sense of agency: “Given who I am, my reasons and values, I deliberate and then act—and those processes matter.”

    In practice, what seems to matter most is not whether your free‑will view would satisfy a metaphysician, but whether your stance preserves a robust sense of agency: that what you choose and work toward genuinely shapes your future and the lives of others.

    —– —– —– —– —– —– —– —–

    My conclusion: The feeling of free will is natural, and it takes work to deny it. I like knowing that “I” still make choices, and all that matters is how “I” define “me”, with the input of course of my environment and other people in it. And where almost all people’s experiences are sharable, largely thanks to natural abilities, and usefully invented constructs.

    As for the existence of past, present, and a moving Now, I have no clue why that should matter, unless it somehow simplifies or characterizes theories. (I do understand that locality matters in how one experiences time and space.) Maybe a timeless, quantum tunnel is created every time two entangled particles separate, I just don’t understand how, unless maybe a “dimension” is created or already exists that keeps them “connected or unitary at one point”.

    But what difference would that even make, until we learn how it predicts a subsequent behavior?

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 1,776 total)