jakelafort

“When we first begin to believe anything, what we believe is not a single proposition, it is a whole system of propositions. (Light dawns gradually over the whole.) / It is not single axioms that strike me as obvious, it is a system in which consequences and premises give one another mutual support.” — Wittgenstein, On Certainty, sec. 141-42

Wordle 1,346 3/6*

⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛
⬛⬛⬛🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Bayes in action!!

Introduction to formal and informal fallacies.

Here is a more detailed explanation of Bayes Theory. Don’t be put off by the Math as the concept is more important if you are new to it.

I guess I should allow for the word “belief” and not just “understanding” as I think we all know the I don’t mean religious belief, i.e. belief that is not open to revision.

Another example:

Think of Bayes’ T…[Read more]

@ Unseen – The point you make about Columbus can be used as a basic example of Bayes Theory.  If he had being given new objective information about the location then he could have updated his understanding of what he had discovered. It would have changed his reality.  That is the essence of how Bayes works. It is not “shattering a belief”. It is d…[Read more]

I don’t know where to fit this in, but…

Christopher Columbus did not actually discover America because he maintained until his death that he had reached some portion of Asia. Doubts were emerging but it was Amerigo Vespucci who fully realized that the Americas were truly something else, calling them a “new world.”

The point: You can only claim…[Read more]

Thanks Simon, Bayesian thinking is all about checking out new ideas. We don’t want kids to hold beliefs, we want them to have “understandings”. Then when a new idea (information) comes along, they will have the skills to reason through it and adapt their understanding accordingly.

Bayesian reasoning, logic, and fallacy recognition would do more…[Read more]

The United States sent $50 million in condoms to Hamas. Diversity programs caused a plane crash. China controls the Panama Canal. Ukraine started the war with Russia.

Except, no. None of that is true. Not that it stops President Trump. In the first month since he returned to power, he has demonstrated once again a brazen willingness to advance…[Read more]

I have more to add but decided to start  with this. Let’s see how it develops.

@Jakelafort…..I am going to post something on Critical Thinking and improving Education for children soon.  A “first draft” that we can build upon.

@Strega, as always you are very welcome. Any break in the weather there?

@unapologetic – Point 3 – I always help xians by  correcting the chapter and verse notations when they start quoting scripture as some type of proof. I then explain the circular nature of their argument and say “If you are trying to prove the Bible is the word of your god by quoting it, then I will quote from Dracula to prove it also is”.

@Enco, Thanks, I blame cuts to the editing dept for not replying to emails asking them to explain what they actually do!!  Typo has been corrected.

Also, there is no historical evidence that Charles Darwin ever wrote, said, or implied that his goal was to “murder God.”